Focus on Colonial Goods [sugar prices]

The commodities markets are in the spotlight as a valuable resource for purchasing strategies. When it comes to sugar, production levels have fallen short of expectations, making it a challenging market to navigate.

International prices were characterised by bullish volatility throughout April. Prices reached 12-year highs.

The main driver for this was the further deterioration of supply in important production and export areas:

• INDIA: Production for the current year was revised downwards (-8.4% compared to 21/22 production), below the threshold imposed by the government for the release of new export quotas.
• BRAZIL: Production in the first two weeks of the campaign was below expectations. In addition, the government is considering raising the ethanol content in petrol to 30%, which would incentivise the conversion of sugar cane to ethanol, further limiting supply.
• THAILAND: Production, although up compared to 21/22, ended early and remained below initial expectations.
  
• EU: Spot prices remain at record levels. The Commission further revised production downwards for the 22/23 to – 11.9% when compared to 21/22. Net import requirements were further increased, confirmed by the trend of cumulative imports, which in mid-April were 65% higher than in the same period for the previous year. As far as the 23/24 campaign is concerned, production is expected to increase by 3.7% compared to 22/23, but this would not reduce import requirements by much. European prices for 23/24 are expected to remain at historically high levels, despite lower energy costs compared to 22/23 being the main downward driver.

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