Middle East tensions: potential impact on energy, shipping routes and UK food supply chains

In an increasingly unstable international environment, geopolitical tensions can quickly affect energy markets and global supply chains. For food companies and retailers operating in the UK market, these developments can have direct implications on import costs, logistics and the availability of key ingredients.

Atlante continuously monitors commodity markets and the main logistics routes connecting Asia, the Mediterranean and Europe. In this update we analyse how the current situation in the Middle East is influencing energy markets, shipping routes and freight costs, and the potential consequences for agri-food supply chains.

Extra Bulletin – 4 March 2026

Over the past few days, the escalation in the Middle East has become a tangible risk factor for the balance of energy prices and the operational resilience of the supply chain. Markets are reacting with pronounced volatility across oil and gas, while transport networks—particularly maritime routes (Hormuz / Bab el-Mandeb) and, to some extent, air freight—are showing signs of disruption. In this context, the expected impact is not limited to higher costs, but also greater instability in freight rates, surcharges and transit times, with potential knock-on effects on the availability of certain supplies.

Energy – Oil

• In the latest trading sessions, oil has reacted sharply to the rise in geopolitical risk, with fast moves and strong headline sensitivity—typical of a phase in which the market is pricing in a significant “risk premium”.
• The main driver is operational: the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, and around one fifth of global oil flows pass through it. When this hub comes under threat, price reactions tend to be immediate.
• At the open, pronounced gains were seen in futures (WTI +7% and Brent +8%), confirming a highly volatile environment. In the background, OPEC+’s announcement of an April production increase of +206,000 barrels per day is a potential moderating factor, albeit one that does not eliminate uncertainty around security and shipping routes.

Energy – Gas (EU) e LNG

• European gas has also shown a particularly pronounced reaction: the TTF benchmark jumped by more than 20% at the open, signalling a market that is extremely sensitive to any shift in perceived risk.
• The pattern remains typical of a “nervous” phase: volatility is being driven not only by fundamentals, but also by expectations around continuity of flows and the logistics of supply.
• Structurally, the key issue is the route: around 20% of global LNG exports pass through Hormuz, which increases the responsiveness of European prices in the face of stoppages, restrictions, or even purely operational uncertainty.

Ocean freight logistics

• Hormuz is being flagged as unsafe for transit, with movements into and out of the Gulf reportedly suspended; in parallel, several carriers have halted transits through Bab el-Mandeb, implementing diversions (including via the Cape of Good Hope) and extending transit times across multiple trade lanes.
• Longer routes translate into longer vessel cycles and therefore a reduction in effective weekly capacity, creating pressure on container space, a risk of temporary equipment shortages, congestion at alternative hubs and irregular sailing schedules.
• In this context, periods in which it becomes difficult to place or confirm bookings for affected origins/destinations cannot be ruled out; closures or operational constraints at specific ports in the area are also being reported.

Freight rates and surcharges

• In this phase, transport costs can increase even if services remain operational, as carriers are managing a higher-risk environment and longer routes. This often translates into temporary surcharges linked to security and operational constraints.
• The main additional costs that may arise include: war-risk insurance, emergency or contingency surcharges, and fuel-related adjustments when vessels are required to sail longer distances.
• Longer routes mean longer vessel cycles and therefore lower effective capacity at constant demand. This results in greater pressure on space and equipment, with potential freight rate increases and short-notice changes—particularly on the Asia–Europe and Far East–Mediterranean lanes.

Air freight

• Airspace restrictions and no-fly zones are leading to diversions or suspensions, resulting in longer transit times and irregular cargo operations.
• The impact may extend beyond the region: longer routings and aircraft redeployments reduce capacity and increase rate volatility.
• Particular attention is on the Far East–Europe lanes, where capacity constraints and upward price pressure are expected.

Agrifood – Indirect impacts

• The impact on agricultural commodities is primarily indirect and tends to hit first those categories most closely linked to energy: energy-intensive commodities or those used for energy purposes (e.g. maize and sugar for ethanol), as well as substitutes for petroleum products (vegetable oils for biodiesel).
• At the open, increases of over 2% were reported for Sugar No. 5 and for some vegetable oils (palm/soy).
• Upward pressure on fertilisers is also possible, driven by the combined effect of higher energy costs and more complex logistics.

The overall scenario is expected to remain highly dynamic: the combination of energy volatility (oil and gas) and operational disruption in logistics (route diversions, reduced capacity, congestion, irregular sailing schedules and potential booking difficulties) increases the likelihood of price increases and greater variability in lead times and sourcing costs.

At this stage, the key risk is the rapid evolution of freight rates, surcharges, insurance premiums and operating conditions, with potential knock-on effects across supply chains, including agri-food.

Atlante is maintaining a high level of attention on potential operational impacts along certain strategic corridors. In particular, potential slowdowns or interruptions in agri-food supplies to India are emerging, and imports from Asia are under constant monitoring in light of volatility across routes, capacity and transport conditions.